City Modelling Used For Regional Roadmap
The Premier’s roadmap for regional Victoria to exit COVID-19 restrictions has more holes in it than the state’s country roads.
Member for Western Victoria, Bev McArthur, has questioned the Health and Education Ministers in State Parliament about what modelling was used by the Premier to create the regional exit plan.
She said Daniel Andrews’ claim that Burnet Institute `expert modelling’ was used is simply incorrect.
“The Burnet Institute itself has clarified that this is untrue,” Mrs McArthur said.
“The Institute said its modelling only applies to the metropolitan road map.”
This raises a series of questions.
“When Daniel Andrews claimed that the road map was based on the Burnet Institute’s modelling, did he forget that Victoria’s borders do not end at the Ring Road or did he just mislead the public?
“If it is the latter, then on what health advice did the government base the regional road map?”
Mrs McArthur said the absence of the regional modelling by experts puts in doubt why regional businesses remain in a contrived lockdown that is sending them ‘bust’.
“If the rules forcing them to be shut down are based only on a whim of the Premier and/or the Chief Health Officer, then this is a ruthless, reckless scandal.
The problem extends to education.
Under the current roadmap – based on the metropolitan modelling – students between Grade 3 and 10 across Western Victoria are unable to return to school.
The Education Minister has denied Melbourne-based modelling was used, telling a press conference that “the Burnet modelling…looks at the epidemiology of the situation across the whole of Victoria” and that “that’s what the back to school plan is based on.”
Mrs McArthur has questioned the Education Minister, James Merlino, on how his view of the scope of the modelling is very different from those who did the modelling.
“Minister, are you accusing Dr Nick Scott of the Burnet Institute of lying and if not, what is the modelling and health advice that is preventing Warrnambool and Western Victoria students from going to school,” she asked.
“Endlessly through this pandemic the Opposition has called on the Government to publicly release the health advice that supports the extreme restrictions.
“Now, when it finally does, it turns out it only supports one half of the restrictions.
“Even epidemiologists cannot make sense of the decision,” Mrs McArthur told the parliament.
Deakin University’s Chair of Epidemiology, Professor Catherine Bennett, also recently told the Warrnambool Standard that it was ‘weird’ not to use modelling specific to the regions.
“I would have thought you would factor that in because you might open up in certain areas earlier,” she is quoted as saying.
Mrs McArthur said areas should open up earlier because the modelling obviously was not based on rural factors and excludes broader considerations such as mental health and economic impacts.
6 October 2021
